Media Guide to the New Parliamentary Constituencies
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This Guide to the Fifth Periodical Review of parliamentary constituency boundaries was compiled by Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher (University of Plymouth). It is the result of collaboration between the BBC, ITN, the Press Association and Sky News to produce constituency by constituency estimates of the political effects of the work of the Parliamentary Boundary
Commissions for England, Wales and Northern Ireland*.
It provides detailed ‘notional’ results for the 2005 general election in all those constituencies where there are boundary changes, and will be used throughout the media as the basis for determining which parties hold which seats and what change
in share of the vote is required for seats to change hands. In addition, it shows how the electorate of each old constituency has been dispersed; where the electorate of each new constituency has come from;
and the precise composition of the new constituencies in terms of local authority wards and divisions.
This Guide contains numerous tables including:
There is also a grid allowing readers to project the distribution of seats in the new House of Commons for a range of shares of the vote.
- List of Constituencies by Press Association number & Index of Change;
- Seats ranked in order of % majority by party (GB);
- Target lists for the main parties by rank order of swing to win (GB);
- Seats ranked in order of % majority by region and party (GB);
- Regional target lists (GB);
- Three-way marginal seats (GB); and
- Seats ranked by turnout/notional turnout at 2005 general election (GB).
* It is understood that the BCNI is unlikely to meet its statutory deadline of June 2007 for submitting its final report to the Secretary of State. When the BCNI does publish its final report, and the required Order in Council has been made, we will make available full details of the new constituencies (and their notional
2005 results) on our website – www.plymouth.ac.uk/elections.
They will also be available on the Northern Ireland elections website – www.ark.ac.uk
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